Ten Points of Debate from the Weekend's Premier League Action

1. Rogers and Emery Combine for Heist

Are match outcomes tell the whole story? One must ask. Aston Villa's winning streak persisted with a win over Manchester United, but so did the lingering concerns. Statistically, they were inferior by a number of key indicators – fewer shots (12-15), a smaller share of the ball (43-57), fewer big chances (2-3). Once again, the victory was tightly contested. As usual, statistical models sided with the opposition: analysis indicates United had the slight advantage 1.31-1.02. But, as every fan knows games are decided on the pitch, not on spreadsheets. They are won by solid teamwork, shrewd management and sparkling skill – and Villa possess each ingredient. Villa's emerging star might just be their only star, but he is performing with festive regularity. The Spanish tactician is crafty, battle-hardened, streets ahead of the United boss. If Rogers profited from a defensive lapse, this was almost certainly because the coach had detected that Yoro was playing out of position, and instructed his winger to start wide, drive inside and torment him. Individual brilliance and coaching, working together.

2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short

When Manchester United beat Brighton 4-2 in late October, their fans rediscovered hope. They had won three league games on the bounce for the maiden instance under Ruben Amorim. They ascended to fourth. And the wins were all good ones – over Brighton (one of their many bogey teams), Liverpool (at Anfield!) and Sunderland (in front of their own fans, versus a newly-promoted side, but still – a routine shutout). The goalkeeper was reassuring, the attack was exciting and there was a positive mood. But then United went back to black. Over the next eight fixtures, a mere pair of successes, six missed opportunities. In the recent fixture they were the better team without ever appearing likely to triumph. Yes, their forward scored a good goal, but he also missed a sitter. Yes, United were unlucky with injuries (to important midfielders), but they conceded soft goals. After 13 months in England, the manager has yet to solve how to claim three points.

3. Arsenal Grind Out a Vital Victory

It was an evening fixture on the Saturday before Christmas but a distinct lack of quality in the opposition box made for a forgettable match. For Everton, the issue was expected with offensive players absent, and Jack Grealish failing to inspire an entire team on his own. In many respects it is remarkable that David Moyes’s side occupied a European spot in the table two weeks earlier given they have played the whole campaign without a reliable number nine. For Arsenal and the Spanish coach, while he enjoyed a merited victory and reclaiming first place of the table, the problem should be just as worrying given their ambitions for the Premier League. The manager claimed that positive results will inevitably become bigger with hard work and perseverance. But it is a little early in the season for a team that can start with world-class talents, while leaving quality substitutes on the bench, to be dependent on scrappy victories.

4. Guardiola’s Festive City Investigations

During the holidays Pep Guardiola will conduct fitness tests to ensure his Manchester City players have not overdone the festive fare. He revealed the players asked to take a day off after their latest win but he refused because they didn’t play good enough. So it's recovery, work for those who didn't feature, and following a short break, then two days to prepare for the Nottingham Forest game. He explained how improvements can be made. “My strength is deciphering what happens in the game, locating the gaps – if the players were in optimal spots, we could create more.” Guardiola will also enjoy a rest: “I have holidays with the family and champagne. I'm going to Barcelona – it's highly recommended, the food is top.”

5. Liverpool's Joy Tempered by Isak Blow

Isak's clinical effort at Tottenham felt, for a glorious few seconds, like an arrival. This was the very purpose Liverpool splashed the cash for him to do, to decide close contests with his clever positioning and composure, and the assurance with which he clipped in from good service boded superbly. So the scene of his substitution immediately, the victim of a reckless attempt, was a huge concern for the Liverpool manager and frustrating for fans who would like to see an extraordinary talent reach his peak again. Reports suggest Isak has sustained a fractured leg and he likely faces a lengthy period on the sidelines. It would be a major blow with Slot’s team having steadily climbed towards the upper echelons, putting together a six-game unbeaten run highlighted by Isak’s maiden league strikes in their colours. Their fortunes this season appear inextricably linked to those of their record signing.

6. A Contentious Call Saves Chelsea

Managers often complain about debatable rulings as a means of diverting the narrative from matters they would prefer were not talked about. The numerous points Newcastle have failed to secure from leading situations this season is a prime example. Their manager certainly did not seem too willing to mention that costly trend following his side’s failure to protect a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they eventually tied. Yet Newcastle’s manager was surely correct to highlight a decision made by the match officials not to award his team a penalty following a clear obstruction on the England international. With the score then 2-1, a penalty could have altered the outcome. Was the decision to offer the defender the benefit of considerable doubt informed by Gordon’s reputation for being expert at drawing contact and sometimes exaggerating? Comments by a respected pundit was interesting. “Gordon’s waiting,” came the observation. “He's prepared for the impact and he braces for it. I think he intends to hit the deck. But the nature of the contact there … it's more than just defending.”

7. Wolves' Grim Relegation Reality

Brentford’s initial success on their travels this season spelled a welcome result for their manager. Instead of reveling in the win, Andrews spoke kindly about Wolves, the club he started his career with. “A large chunk of my life was here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is truly alarming; statistical models state – perhaps generously – their likelihood of the drop at 99.17%, leaving little tangible to fight for beyond professionalism. A senior professional brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly

Colleen Nichols
Colleen Nichols

Professional poker player and analyst with over a decade of experience in high-stakes urban tournaments, specializing in strategic game theory.